Re-posted from www.Time.com
After being on cruise control for months, the stock market hit a giant speed bump on Monday, when the Dow Jones industrial average plunged — tumbling more than 1,500 points at one point after sinking 665 points on Friday.
By the close, the Dow had lost around 2,200 points since Jan. 26, closing in on a 10% decline — which would mark the start of an official “correction.”
So why is the stock market suddenly starting to plunge?
Chalk this up to a case of “be careful what you wish for.”
On paper, Wall Street should be rejoicing right now — not racing to cash out as investors have been doing lately.
Investors, after all, recently got the corporate and income tax cuts they’ve been clamoring for. The economy is accelerating for real, with U.S. gross domestic product now expanding at a annual pace of more than 3% (after inflation) for three straight quarters.
And for the first time in a long while, it appears that worker wages are finally beginning to lift, with average hourly earnings rising to $26.74 in January — a 2.9% increase over the past year.
This represents the fastest rate of wage growth in nearly nine years, since the end of the Great Recession. And it effectively marks the end of the global economy’s war against deflation, which had been the biggest economic threat since the financial crisis began more than a decade ago.
In theory, these are all bullish developments. Yet stocks are going in the opposite direction.
That’s largely because the natural outgrowth of an expanding economy and rising wages is inflation, which hasn’t been a real threat to the economy in nearly three decades.
Investors now believe it is.
Is inflation really heating up?
Yes. Even though it seems tame right now — the consumer price index is up a modest 2.1% over the past 12 months — there’s a good chance inflation could start to pick up steam.
Why? For starters, “signs indicate that wage growth is headed even higher later this year,” says Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network
For example, the labor force participation rate — which measures the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or looking for work — “seems to have hit an upper bound at around 63% and has been bouncing around somewhat below that,” McMillan notes. Even with wages and job creation accelerating, January’s labor participation rate was 62.7%, which is about where it’s been for four straight months.
That, in turn, could mean that corporate profit margins are about to be pinched.
There’s one other reason why investors should brace themselves for higher inflation.
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for The Leuthold Group, notes that for the first time in this economic recovery, nomimal GDP growth (that is, economic growth before the effects of inflation are stripped out) exceeds the national unemployment rate.
When the that happens, “history suggests wage pressures are finally likely to intensify more than most anticipate this year,” Paulsen says.
Are there other reasons to worry?
Yes. It’s not just the threat of rising inflation that investors fear. Wall Street is also worried about what the Federal Reserve might do in response.
“The catalyst isn’t fear of a growth slowdown; it is fear of too much growth and surging bond yields,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist for Charles Schwab. “An overheating global economy could mean a more rapid shift by central banks to rein in stimulus” — typically by raising interest rates rapidly.
And rapid rate hikes in an overheating economy is “often a precursor to a recession and a bear market,” he notes.
Already, in anticipation of higher short-term rates, investors have driven longer-term interest rates higher. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, for instance, reached as high as 2.86% on Monday, up from 2.40% at the start of the year and 2.03% in September.
Does the new Fed chief have anything to do with the sell-off?
It’s hard to blame any of this on new Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. After all, he was just sworn in as chairman of the U.S. central bank on Monday afternoon. And the sell-off began well in advance.
However, the markets have historically had a knack for testing new Fed chairman at critical junctures of the economy.
Investors will recall that Alan Greenspan became Fed chairman in August 1987, as the central bank was already hiking rates toward the end of a long economic expansion. That transition took place just weeks before the October 1987 market crash, in which stocks lost nearly a quarter of their value on a single day.
Ben Bernanke similarly assumed the Fed chairmanship in 2006, at the end of another cycle in which housing and stock prices were greatly inflated. About a year later, the stock market entered into a bear market in which equities lost more than half their value.
Re-posted from Investopedia
You’ve done all the right things – financially speaking, at least – to get ready for retirement. You started saving early to take advantage of the power of compounding, maxed out your 401(k) and individual retirement account (IRA) contributions every year, made smart investments, squirreled away money into additional savings, paid down debt and figured out how to maximize your Social Security benefits.
Now what? When do you stop saving – and start enjoying the fruits of your labor?
A Nice Problem to Have (But a Problem All the Same)
Many people who have saved consistently for retirement have trouble making the transition from saver to spender when the time comes. Careful saving – for decades, after all – can be a hard habit to break. “Most good savers are terrible spenders,” says Joe Anderson, CFP, president of Pure Financial Advisors, Inc. in San Diego.
It’s a challenge most Americans will never face: More than half (55%) are at risk of being unable to cover essential living expenses – housing, healthcare, food and the like – during retirement, according to a recent study from Fidelity Investments.
Even though it’s an enviable predicament, being too thrifty during retirement can be its own kind of problem. “I see that many people in retirement have more anxiety about running out of money than they had working very stressful jobs,” says Anderson. “They begin to live that ‘just in case something happens’ retirement.”
Ultimately, that kind of fear can be the difference between having a dream retirement and a dreary one. For starters, penny-pinching can be hard on your health, especially if it means skimping on healthy food, not staying physically and mentally active, and putting off healthcare. (For more, see 7 Signs You’re Spending Too Little in Retirement.)
Being stuck in saving mode can also cause you to miss out on valuable experiences, from visiting friends and family to learning a new skill to traveling. All these activities have been linked to healthy aging, providing physical, cognitive and social benefits. (For more, see Retirement Travel: Good and Good for You.)
One reason people have trouble with the transition is fear: in particular, the fear that they will outlive their savings or have medical expenses that leave them destitute. One thing to keep in mind that spending naturally declines during retirement in several ways. You won’t be paying Social Security and Medicare taxes anymore, for example, or contributing to a retirement plan. Plus, many of your work-related expenses – commuting, clothing and frequent lunches out, to name three – will cost less or disappear.
To calm people’s nerves, Anderson does a demo for them: “running a cash-flow projection based on a very safe withdrawal rate of 1% to 2% of their investable assets. Through the projection they can determine how much money they will have, factoring in their spending, inflation, taxes, etc. This will show them that it’s OK to spend the money.”
Another reason some retirees resist spending is that they have a particular dollar figure in mind that they want to leave their kids or some other beneficiary. That’s admirable – to a point. It doesn’t make sense to live off peanut butter and jelly during retirement just to make things easier for your heirs. (For more, see Designating a Minor as an IRA Beneficiary.)
“Retirees should always prioritize their needs over their children’s,” says Mark Hebner, founder and president of Index Fund Advisors in Irvine, Calif. “Although it is always the desire for parents to take care of their children, it should never come at the expense of their own needs while in retirement. Many parents don’t want to become a burden on their children in retirement and ensuring their own financial success will make sure they maintain their independence.”
When to Start Spending
Since there’s no magical age that dictates when it’s time to switch from saver to spender (some people can retire at 40 while most have to wait until their 60s or even 70+), you have to consider your own financial situation and lifestyle. A general rule of thumb says it’s safe to stop saving and start spending once you are debt-free and your retirement income from Social Security, pension, retirement accounts, etc. can cover your expenses and inflation.
Of course, this approach only works if you don’t go overboard with your spending; creating a budget can help you stay on track. (For more, see The Complete Guide to Planning a Yearly Budget.)
Line in the Sand
Even if you find it hard to spend your nest egg, you’ll have to start cashing out a portion of your retirement savings each year once you turn 70-1/2 years old. That’s when the IRS requires you to take required minimum distributions, or RMDs, from your IRA, SIMPLE IRA, SEP IRA or retirement plan accounts (Roth IRAs don’t apply) – or risk paying tax penalties. And these aren’t trivial penalties: If you don’t take your RMD, you will owe the IRS a penalty equal to 50% of what you should have withdrawn. So, for example, if you should have taken out $5,000 and didn’t, you’ll owe $2,500 in penalties.
If you’re not a big spender, RMDs are no reason to freak out. “Although RMDs are required to be distributed, they are not required to be spent,” Charlotte A. Dougherty, CFP, of Dougherty & Associates in Cincinnati, points out. “In other words, they must come out of the retirement account and go through the ‘tax fence,’ as we say, and then can be directed to an after-tax account which then can be spent or invested as goals dictate.”
As Thomas J. Cymer, DFP, CRPC, of Opulen Financial Group in Arlington, Va., notes: If individuals “are fortunate enough to not need the funds they can reinvest them using a regular brokerage account. Or they may want to start using this forced withdrawal as an opportunity to make annual gifts to grandkids, kids or even favorite charities (which can help reduce the taxable income). For those who will be subject to estate taxes these annual gifts can help to reduce their taxable estates below the estate tax threshold.”
Since RMD rules are complicated, especially if you have more than one account, it’s a good idea to check with your tax professional to make sure your RMD calculations and distributions meet current requirements.
The Bottom Line
You may be perfectly happy living on less during retirement and leaving more to your kids. Still, allowing yourself to enjoy some of the simple pleasures – whether it’s traveling, funding a new hobby or making a habit of dining out – can make for a more fulfilling retirement.
And don’t wait too long to start: Early retirement is when you’re likely to be most active, as The 4 Phases of Retirement and How to Budget for Them makes clear.
Read more: When It’s Time to Stop Saving for Retirement | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/021816/when-its-time-stop-saving-retirement.asp#ixzz52ZWCAOIj
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